Universal Prediction Runtime
Phase XIV · V11 — the permanent prediction layer. Given V10's immutable dry-run handoff, it produces a deterministic probabilistic FORECAST: a probability distribution over the outcome classes (failure / partial / success / vacuous, as integer permille summing to 1000), a confidence-ranked forecast, an expected outcome, and an ordinal expected score. Every forecast cites its originating simulation handoff + plan. Fail-closed: missing simulation→UNKNOWN, indeterminate simulation→UNPREDICTABLE, invalid handoff→PREDICTION_INVALID. It forecasts what a dry-run foresaw — but executes nothing, invokes no provider, mutates nothing, changes no plan, and reasons nothing beyond the supplied simulation evidence. Read-only.
The Universal Prediction Runtime is the permanent prediction layer of GIOS: every future learner, autonomous agent, and orchestration engine inherits this deterministic forecast layer instead of predicting outcomes independently. It consumes V10's SimulationPredictionHandoff (the overall predicted outcome and confidence a dry-run produced) and turns it into a calibrated probability distribution over the outcome classes, a confidence-ranked forecast, an expected outcome, and an ordinal expected score. The distribution is a deterministic function of the dry-run's predicted outcome and confidence — integer permille summing to exactly 1000, never a measured frequency and never a fabricated number. Every forecast cites the simulation handoff and plan it originates from, so the prediction is traceable all the way back through simulation, planning, cognition, and memory to the observed execution outcomes, and nothing is forecast beyond the simulation. It fails closed: a missing simulation yields UNKNOWN, a simulation that was itself indeterminate yields UNPREDICTABLE, and a handoff that violates its own no-side-effect contract yields PREDICTION_INVALID — never an invented forecast. It prepares an immutable handoff for a future Learning Runtime. It never executes, never invokes a provider, never mutates memory, never changes cognition, never changes the plan, and never reasons beyond the supplied simulation evidence — execution stays behind the Broker (→ V5) — and it inherits the A0 Intelligence Kernel lifecycle.