GIOS Studioalpha · read-only
Predict the reliability dry-run (adverse)
Probabilistic forecast — deterministic, simulation-cited, unexecuted. Derived from V10's dry-run handoff; every forecast cites its originating simulation. Executes nothing, invokes no provider, mutates no memory, changes no cognition, changes no plan, and reasons nothing beyond the supplied simulation evidence.
predictedexpected: partialscore: 1000/2000confidence: low#e6a1f55e
mission: forecast outcomes for the reliability simulation under adverse conditions · simulation: sim:sim-reliability-adverse · plan: plan:plan-reliability
predicted — forecast over "sim:sim-reliability-adverse": predicted "partial" @ low confidence → distribution [failure_predicted:260, partial:480, success:260, vacuous:0] permille (sum 1000); expected "partial" (score 1000/2000); predicts only — executes nothing, changes no plan (execution stays behind the Broker → V5)
Probability distribution (permille, sum 1000)
#1 partial480‰ (48.0%)
#2 success260‰ (26.0%)
#3 failure_predicted260‰ (26.0%)
#4 vacuous0‰ (0.0%)
Assumptions (explicit)
assumes: the forecast reflects only the supplied simulation evidence — no outcome is inferred beyond the dry-run
basis: sim:sim-reliability-adverse
assumes: probabilities are a deterministic function of the dry-run's predicted outcome and confidence, not a measured frequency
basis: pred-reliability-adverse
assumes: the underlying simulation (sim:sim-reliability-adverse) and its plan (plan:plan-reliability) remain valid — the prediction is not re-derived per consumer
basis: plan:plan-reliability
Evidence (traceable to V10 / V9)
simulation_handoff: sim:sim-reliability-adverse
simulation: sim:sim-reliability-adverse
plan: plan:plan-reliability
Learning handoff → future Learning runtime
ownerfuture-learning-runtime
simulation / expectedsim:sim-reliability-adverse / partial
executed / performed / mutated / changed plannothing / nothing / nothing / nothing
The immutable bundle a future Learning Runtime consumes. V11 forecasts the dry-run but takes no action — execution stays behind the Broker (→ V5).