GIOS Studioalpha · read-only
Predict the throughput dry-run (optimistic)
Probabilistic forecast — deterministic, simulation-cited, unexecuted. Derived from V10's dry-run handoff; every forecast cites its originating simulation. Executes nothing, invokes no provider, mutates no memory, changes no cognition, changes no plan, and reasons nothing beyond the supplied simulation evidence.
predictedexpected: failure_predictedscore: 692/2000confidence: low#7c449e53
mission: forecast outcomes for the throughput simulation · simulation: sim:sim-throughput · plan: plan:plan-throughput
predicted — forecast over "sim:sim-throughput": predicted "failure_predicted" @ low confidence → distribution [failure_predicted:481, partial:346, success:173, vacuous:0] permille (sum 1000); expected "failure_predicted" (score 692/2000); predicts only — executes nothing, changes no plan (execution stays behind the Broker → V5)
Probability distribution (permille, sum 1000)
#1 failure_predicted481‰ (48.1%)
#2 partial346‰ (34.6%)
#3 success173‰ (17.3%)
#4 vacuous0‰ (0.0%)
Assumptions (explicit)
assumes: the forecast reflects only the supplied simulation evidence — no outcome is inferred beyond the dry-run
basis: sim:sim-throughput
assumes: probabilities are a deterministic function of the dry-run's predicted outcome and confidence, not a measured frequency
basis: pred-throughput
assumes: the underlying simulation (sim:sim-throughput) and its plan (plan:plan-throughput) remain valid — the prediction is not re-derived per consumer
basis: plan:plan-throughput
Evidence (traceable to V10 / V9)
simulation_handoff: sim:sim-throughput
simulation: sim:sim-throughput
plan: plan:plan-throughput
Learning handoff → future Learning runtime
ownerfuture-learning-runtime
simulation / expectedsim:sim-throughput / failure_predicted
executed / performed / mutated / changed plannothing / nothing / nothing / nothing
The immutable bundle a future Learning Runtime consumes. V11 forecasts the dry-run but takes no action — execution stays behind the Broker (→ V5).