local-first · v0.1

Simulate the reliability plan (adverse)

Dry-run simulation — deterministic, plan-cited, unexecuted. Derived from V9's execution plan; every step outcome cites its originating plan step. Executes nothing, invokes no provider, mutates no memory, changes no cognition, and never changes the plan.

simulatedpredicted: partialscenario: adverseconfidence: low#37fbc934
mission: dry-run the reliability plan under adverse conditions · plan: plan:plan-reliability · cognition: cognition:cog-reliability
simulateddry-run under "adverse": 1 step(s), 1 at-risk, 1 failure point(s), 0 risk(s) projected to materialize → partial (executes nothing; execution stays behind the Broker → V5)

Predicted step outcomes (execution order)

#0 action candidate: review the evidence behind "goal candidate: mitigate "risk: denial rate is high (4/6)""at_risk
from: plan-step:plan-reliability:0 · irreversible · failure point

Risk projection (scenario-dependent)

risk: "credential_unauthorized" caused 1 denial(s)tolerated
level: low · from: plan-risk:plan-reliability:risk:cog-reliability:credential_unauthorized
risk: "grant_already_consumed" caused 1 denial(s)tolerated
level: low · from: plan-risk:plan-reliability:risk:cog-reliability:grant_already_consumed
risk: "grant_expired" caused 1 denial(s)tolerated
level: low · from: plan-risk:plan-reliability:risk:cog-reliability:grant_expired
risk: "plan_not_selected" caused 1 denial(s)tolerated
level: low · from: plan-risk:plan-reliability:risk:cog-reliability:plan_not_selected
risk: denial rate is high (4/6)mitigated
level: critical · from: plan-risk:plan-reliability:risk:cog-reliability:denial-rate · mitigated by 1

Assumptions (explicit)

assumes: no real side effect occurs — this is a dry-run prediction, not an execution
basis: sim-reliability-adverse
assumes: the plan's declared capabilities and provider availability hold at execution time
basis: plan:plan-reliability
assumes: the originating plan (plan:plan-reliability) remains valid — the simulation is not re-derived per consumer
basis: plan:plan-reliability

Resource forecast (never measured)

stages / steps / simulated1 / 1 / 1
at-risk / failure points1 / 1
capabilities / providerscap:review / prov:analysis
effort (class, not measured)low · measured: false

Prediction handoff → future Prediction runtime (V11)

ownerfuture-prediction-runtime
step outcomes / predicted1 / partial
executed / performed / mutated / changed plannothing / nothing / nothing / nothing

The immutable bundle a future Prediction Runtime consumes. V10 dry-runs the plan but takes no action — execution stays behind the Broker (→ V5).